War Against ISIS, May 2016 Progress Report
My Blog’s Five Step Strategy
My goal is to minimize death and injuries resulting from war with ISIS. This includes minimizing U.S. Coalition damages as well as terrorist attacks in the U. S. and Europe. It also includes minimizing death of Muslims in the Middle East or elsewhere throughout the world. War is bad. War sucks.
I recommend a five step strategy for defeating ISIS.
- Military action—recapture Mosul and Raqqah
- Cut off supply lines—seal off the Turkish border with Syria
- Reduce cash flow –Treasury Department financial sanctions
- Cyber-attacks—reduce propaganda and recruiting using the Internet
- Negotiate a peace settlement with ISIS eliminating terrorism and uncivilized capital murders
Military Success—Progress reported by Dept. of Defense
Mosul
Mosul in northern Iraq, occupied since 10 June 2014 ISIS. Mosul is completely ruled by the Islamic State terror group headquartered in Al-Raqqah, Syria. Not much progress is reported (that I can find this week) for either the recapture of Mosul or Raqqah.
One item which caught my attention is about the Mosul Dam.
Built in the mid-1980s on soft gypsum rock, the dam is constantly eroding
U.S. experts warn the dam is at risk of “catastrophic failure.” If it breaks, 1.5 million people could be at risk
Workers pump about 2 tons of concrete into boreholes in the dam’s foundations every day to shore it up
Mosul Dam, Iraq (CNN) Only one of the two bottom outlet gates is functioning, spitting out water in a white churn daily.
The Mosul Dam is considered by some experts among the most dangerous of its kind in the world.
The dam is under ISIS control.
“If the dam were to collapse when the water level is at 330 meters above sea level, the city of Mosul would be entirely flooded, but with the current levels there will be minimum impact to Mosul.”
Tthe villages right along the bank of the Tigris would be impacted.”
Aleppo
Meanwhile, the war by the US and its allies against Islamic State continues in Syria and Iraq. This week Syria saw four strikes near three cities – Al Shadaddi, Ar Raqqah and Mar’a – an Islamic State finance center, a weapons storage facility and two tactical units. In Iraq there were seven strikes against Islamic State’s stronghold of Mosul and six others near Falluja.
This war in Syria, after six years, has to date taken 400,000 lives. A maternity hospital in Aleppo was struck by rocket fire and 20 people were killed.
About 280 civilians have died in Aleppo in the last 12 days, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group of local activists.
Direct clashes between government and rebel forces on Aleppo’s outskirts accompanied the shelling inside, predicting a larger conflict unless a cease-fire can be negotiated.
An opposition media activist outside Aleppo said rebels were waging a counteroffensive against pro-government forces on the western side of the city.
Major Jamil Saleh, leader of Tajammu Al Ezzah army, said his group was fighting in Aleppo. The rebel group, which falls under the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and has been vetted and receives support by the US, ordinarily wages battles in the central province of Hama and in rural Latakia.
“Most of the FSA factions are taking part in the battle in the heart of Aleppo,” he said. “The city is important for all Syrians. It is important economically, militarily and is the commercial capital of Syria.
The U.S. coalition had no role in Tuesday’s attacks. The coalition was suspended before Syria’s indirect, UN-sponsored peace talks resumed in January in Geneva because it included extremists’ groups such as the Nusra Front that oppose the peace process and the UN considers terrorist organizations.
Reviving the coalition would send a message to government forces and their backers that the militants are united.
Raqqa
Also in northern Syria, warplanes carried out intense airstrikes on the city of Raqqa, the de facto capital of the extremist Islamic State group, early Tuesday. Activist groups said it was not clear if the warplanes were Russian or those of the US-led coalition.
The observatory said there were more than 35 air raids and that 18 people were killed, including five members of the Islamic State group, and dozens were wounded.
The anti-IS group called Raqqa is being slaughtered silently said the airstrikes killed 10 and wounded dozens. Different casualty figures are common in the chaos of Syria’s civil war. The group said there were calls from mosque loudspeakers for blood donations.
Cutting Military Supplies—
No new information this week
Reducing ISIS Cash flow—Dept. of Treasury.
No new information this week.
Controlling ISIS Cyber Attacks (Press Conference with Col. Steve Warren)
Q: We’ve heard from the secretary (of defense) about the cyber-attacks against ISIS. What impact have these cyber-attacks had on the tactical situation against ISIS? And what impact are they having in preparations for an attack on Mosul?
COL. WARREN: So very sensitive area. The intent of the cyber piece is to disrupt, to and create confusion, to make the enemy’s ability to do things more difficult. And that frankly, unfortunately, is really the extent of the detail that we can go into. We do believe that, you know, as the cyber piece continues to gain momentum, that we’ll have an increasingly important impact.
Negotiating a Peace Settlement with ISIS—Dept. of State
Many people believe we should never negotiate with terrorists like ISIS, just destroy them. That’s not my approach. We need to negotiate a peaceful settlement with ISIS but we need to do so from strength therefore sticking to the first four steps in my strategy is the right way to go. ISIS will not negotiate with us unless we have the ability to create enough pain to them that they are willing to eliminate some of their tactics that require uncivilized acts. That is not an easy task but in my opinion it is doable.
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